Price Growth Slowed for Over a Year. It May Be Turning Back Up.

For more than a year, the conversation around home prices has centered on slowdown. Growth cooled from the rapid pace we saw a couple of years ago, and a lot of buyers have been operating under the assumption that this gentler pace was going to continue indefinitely, maybe even tip into outright declines. The latest data tells a slightly different story, and I think it's worth understanding before you make any assumptions about your own timeline.

The Trend May Have Hit Its Low Point

Price growth has been moderating steadily for a while now, cooling significantly from where it stood a couple of years ago. But the most recent data suggests that deceleration may have found its floor and started to tick back upward. A couple of months of data on its own doesn't confirm a lasting trend, and I want to be careful not to overstate what a short stretch of numbers can tell us. But there are other signals pointing in the same direction that make this worth paying attention to.

One of the clearest signs is that fewer markets nationally are seeing prices decline. A meaningful share of the largest housing markets in the country were seeing falling prices as recently as the middle of last year. That share has been shrinking steadily since the start of this year. When fewer markets are seeing declines, more of them are, by definition, seeing prices hold steady or rise again.

Forecasts for the year also suggest there's room for this shift to continue. For the national average to land where experts currently project, price growth would need to pick up somewhat in the second half of this year compared to where it's been.

Real Estate Is Still Fundamentally Local

Here's the caveat I always come back to with national data like this. A national price average is really just a blend of hundreds of individual local markets, some accelerating, some still cooling, and everything in between. Part of the reason the national number appears to be turning is that a growing share of individual metro markets are now net positive for the year rather than negative.

Not long ago, major metros were roughly split down the middle between markets seeing prices rise and markets seeing them fall. That balance has been shifting toward more markets showing gains. What this really tells us is that local conditions, job growth, income trends, and inventory levels in a specific market, matter more than any single national headline. A metro with strong local economic fundamentals is going to behave differently than one without them, regardless of what the national average says.

What This Means If You're Buying

If you've been house hunting during this slower growth period, that environment has actually worked in your favor. You've had more room to negotiate and a clearer, more predictable budget to plan around than buyers had during the frenzy of a few years ago. If price growth is genuinely starting to pick back up in your specific market, that changes the calculus somewhat. Buying now, before growth accelerates further, could mean paying meaningfully less than waiting until later in the year would cost you.

This is exactly the kind of moment where sitting on the sidelines waiting for more certainty can end up costing more than acting on the information you already have. I'm not suggesting anyone rush a decision they're not ready for. I'm suggesting that if you've been waiting specifically because you assumed prices would keep softening indefinitely, that assumption is worth revisiting.

What This Means If You Own a Home

If you're a homeowner, you've been building equity all along even while growth moderated, and that accumulation didn't stop just because the headlines focused on slowdown. If growth is genuinely picking back up, those gains could accelerate further. Nationally, the typical homeowner is projected to gain a meaningful amount of housing wealth this year through appreciation alone.

If you've been considering selling, this shift is a genuinely encouraging early signal. I do want to be honest about the other side of it too. The market remains fairly balanced and buyer-friendly in a lot of areas right now, which means pricing and presentation still matter enormously. A turning trend doesn't mean sellers can suddenly price aggressively and expect buyers to simply absorb it. It means the broader tailwind is shifting in your favor, which is worth factoring into your strategy, not a reason to abandon a thoughtful approach.

What This Looks Like in Cherry Creek and Greenwood Village

I want to bring this back to the specific neighborhoods I work in most, because they've historically behaved somewhat differently than the national average through this entire slowdown. Cherry Creek and Cherry Hills Village have both maintained relatively stable pricing even during the broader national cooling period, largely because inventory in these specific pockets has stayed genuinely limited and buyer demand at this price point hasn't softened the way it has in other parts of the market.

If national price growth is now accelerating on top of that already stable local foundation, it's worth having a real conversation about what that could mean for timing, whether you're a buyer trying to get ahead of further appreciation or a seller wondering whether this is the right window to list. I'm watching local data on these specific neighborhoods closely, not just the national numbers, because that's what actually predicts how your home or your purchase will perform.

Why I Don't Lead With National Headlines

I want to be transparent about something. Headlines about national price trends are useful for understanding the broader direction of the wind, but they're rarely precise enough to guide an individual decision on their own. What actually matters is what's happening on your specific street, in your specific price range, with the specific competing inventory you'd be up against. That's the data I bring to every conversation with a client, not just a repeat of whatever the national story happens to be that week.

Price growth slowing for over a year and now showing early signs of turning is a genuinely useful piece of context. But it's the starting point for a conversation, not the whole answer.

What I'm Watching Closely Right Now

Since this shift is still early, I'm paying close attention to a handful of specific indicators rather than reacting to a single month of data. How many homes are going under contract compared to this time last year in each of my core neighborhoods. Whether price reductions on active listings are becoming less frequent, which would suggest sellers are gaining a bit more pricing confidence. And how quickly newly listed homes in Cherry Creek and Greenwood Village are attracting serious offers compared to earlier in the year.

None of these indicators alone tells the full story, but together they give a much clearer picture than any single national headline can. If the local signals start lining up with what the national data is suggesting, that's when I'd feel confident telling a client this trend has real staying power rather than just an early blip.

What This Means for Timing Your Decision

If you've been waiting for more clarity before making a move, I understand that instinct completely. But I'd gently point out that clarity rarely arrives all at once in real estate. By the time a trend is undeniable to everyone, the best pricing has usually already passed. The buyers and sellers who tend to do best are the ones willing to act on strong, well-informed signals rather than waiting for absolute certainty that may not come until the opportunity has already shifted.

That doesn't mean rushing into a decision that doesn't fit your life. It means not letting the search for perfect certainty become an excuse to delay a decision you're otherwise ready to make.

Let's Look at What This Means for You

Whether you're buying or selling, I'd love to walk you through exactly what prices are doing in your specific neighborhood right now and what these broader trends could mean for your particular plans and timeline. A quick conversation now could save you from making an assumption that no longer matches where the market actually stands.